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Energy Policy Forum > 2002
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Projections Point to Strong Growth in World Energy Use
Energy Information Administration
EIA Reports
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 26, 2002
Worldwide energy consumption grows by 60 percent over the
next two decades, according to the reference case projection
released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
in its annual forecast of international energy demand. The "International
Energy Outlook 2002" ("IEO2002") expects much
of the growth to occur in the developing world, with the
regions of developing Asia (including China, India, and South
Korea) and Central and South America leading the way as their
consuming patterns increasingly resemble those of the industrialized
world (Figure 1).
Energy markets were influenced by a host
of developments in 2001. High world oil prices persisted
from 2000 into the
first half of 2001 and then weakened substantially in the
third quarter of the year. The markets also were affected
by the global economic slowdown, led by a mild economic turndown
in the United States and the aftermath of the terrorist attacks
on the United States on September 11, 2001.
The "IEO2002" reference
case expects world oil prices to moderate in 2002 and return
to the price trajectory
anticipated in last year's "Outlook" for the mid-term,
with prices reaching $25 per barrel in 2000 dollars ($42
per barrel in nominal dollars) by 2020, slightly higher than
in last year's "Outlook," reflecting the successes
OPEC had in managing oil production cutbacks to raise oil
prices in 2000. Worldwide, oil consumption rose by less than
100,000 barrels per day in 2001, divided evenly among the
industrialized (mainly Western Europe) and developing (mainly
Central and South America) nations. Demand is expected to
begin to recover in 2002 as the world economies recover from
the slowdown in 2001, and global oil demand is projected
to expand by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2002. In the "IEO2002" reference
case projection, world oil consumption increases from 75
million barrels per day in 1999 to 119 million barrels per
day in 2020, an annualized growth rate of 2.2 percent.
The
increases in worldwide oil use projected in the reference
case would require an increment of almost 44 million barrels
per day over current productive capacity by 2020. OPEC producers
are expected to be the major beneficiaries of increased production
requirements, but non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive,
with major increments coming from offshore resources, especially
in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.
Deepwater exploration and development initiatives are generally
expected to be sustained worldwide, with the offshore Atlantic
Basin emerging as a major future source of oil production
in both Latin America and Africa (Figure 2).
Other report
highlights include:
*Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of primary
world energy consumption. Over the "IEO2002" forecast
period, gas use is projected to nearly double in the reference
case, reaching 162 trillion cubic feet in 2020. The natural
gas share of total energy consumption is projected to increase
from 23 percent in 1999 to 28 percent in 2020, and natural
gas is expected to account for the largest increment in electricity
generation (accounting for 43 percent of the total additional
energy used for electricity generation). Much of the projected
growth in natural gas consumption is in response to rising
demand for natural gas to fuel efficient new gas turbine
power plants.
+ Carbon intensity, the amount of carbon dioxide
emitted per dollar of gross domestic product (GDP), is projected
to improve throughout the world over the next two decades,
although total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to
increase by 62 percent between 1999 and 2020. The most rapid
improvements in carbon intensity are, for the most part,
projected for the transitional economies of Eastern Europe
and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) (Figure 3). In the FSU,
economic recovery from the upheavals resulting from the dissolution
of the Soviet Union is expected to continue throughout the
forecast. The FSU nations are also expected to replace old
and inefficient capital stock and increasingly use less carbon-intensive
natural gas for electricity generation and other end uses
in place of more carbon-intensive oil and coal. China and
India are also expected to see fairly rapid improvements
in carbon intensity over the projection period, primarily
as a result of large increases in economic growth. Both China
and India are expected to continue their heavy dependence
on fossil fuels, especially coal, but their combined annual
GDP growth is projected to average 6.6 percent, compared
with an expected 4.4 percent annual increase in fossil fuel
use from 1999 to 2020.
+ Although past editions of the "Outlook" have
projected sharp drops in nuclear generating capacity at the
end of the forecast horizon, extensions of operating licenses
(or the equivalent) for nuclear power plants among the industrialized
countries dampens the rate of decline in this year's forecast.
Whereas nuclear capacity among the industrialized countries
was projected to fall from 279 gigawatts in 1999 to 247 gigawatts
in 2020 in last year's report, this year's projection shows
a decline to 260 gigawatts. The greatest expansion in new
nuclear capacity is, however, expected to occur among the
developing nations, particularly in developing Asia where
nuclear capacity more than doubles over the projection period,
from 22 gigawatts in 1999 to 54 gigawatts in 2020.
"
IEO2002" is available on EIA's Web Site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
Printed copies of the report will be available in April from
the U.S. Government Printing Office or through EIA's National
Energy Information Center, Room 1E-238, Forrestal Building,
Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800.
The World Energy Projection
System, the model used to generate the projections that appear
in "IEO2002," will
be available in May 2002, on EIA's Internet Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov
The figures referenced above may be viewed along with this
press release on EIA's Web Site or can be requested from
EIA's Press Contact.
_____________________________________________________________________
The report described in this press release was prepared by
the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical
and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
The information contained in the report and the press release
should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration
and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any
policy position of the Department of Energy or any other
organization.
_____________________________________________________________________
EIA Program Contact: Mary J. Hutzler, 202/586-2222
EIA Press Contact:
National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800, infoctr@eia.doe.gov
EIA-2002-03
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